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17 July 2018

US Chamber of Commerce - Africa Investor Sentiment Index

Sentiment study to unpack the drivers of sentiment and topics impacting investor confidence in Africa.

DataEQ conducted a sentiment analysis of social media conversation about nine African states from 1 March – 31 May 2018. The aim of this study was to provide the United States Chamber of Commerce (USCC) with structured and enriched social data to inform investor confidence about nine African countries: Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa.

Nine themes, referred to in this report as factors, that typically impact investor confidence were identified for analysis. The factors were: corruption, economic policies and legislation, employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), innovation and technology, poverty, press freedom, ruling party, and skills and workforce development.

Sentiment over time US Chamber of Commerce country index

Sentiment factor comparitive performance US Chamber of Commerce country factor benchmarking

General insights

The majority of countries analysed displayed an increase in positive public sentiment towards the factors impacting on investor confidence, namely Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Morocco and Nigeria. While Ghana, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa showed a decrease in public sentiment towards the factors.

The factors that most frequently contributed to decreased public sentiment were, lack of trust in the ruling party and leadership, as well as continued concerns with corruption and poverty.

Factors contributing to improved public sentiment included growth in GDP and economic stability, improved employment,innovation and technology and belief in the ruling party’s ability to govern.

Countries analysed continued to be plagued by issues of corruption, poverty and lack of decisive economic policy. Lack of leadership and corruption were also problems raised by authors north and south of the equator.

Regional Insights

West Africa

Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal drove positive sentiment for this region with growth in their GDP, however poverty drover negative sentiment in Senegal. The upcoming elections in Côte d’Ivoire detracts from political confidence. Both Nigeria and Ghana suffered with lack of confidence in leadership. This was further compounded in Nigeria where violence and dictator-like leaders impacted on the well-being of the country.

Southern Africa

The region was most affected by allegations of corruption. In South Africa and Angola allegations of corruption against leadership drove negative sentiment. These allegations affected the confidence of both citizens and the international community. The persecution of journalists in Angola also impacted negatively on the country.

East Africa

Kenya and Ethiopia struggled with safety and security concerns due to political turmoil and violence. This was compounded by Kenya’s announcement that the country was bankrupt due to continued drought in the region as well as the negative impact of the political impasse experienced after the election in 2017.

North Africa

Morocco’s recent GDP growth increased positive public sentiment towards its economy. Though this could be marred by continued protests in various regions.

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